Intersecting Global and Regional Shocks: Implications of the Middle East Crisis and El Niño for Food Security in the Caribbean

The Caribbean enters 2026 facing a convergence of global and regional shocks that pose significant risks to food security, household purchasing power, and economic stability. The simultaneous emergence of a major supply chain disruption in the Middle East combined with a high probability El Niño event threatens to amplify longstanding structural vulnerabilities in a region already grappling with high food import dependence, strong exposure to energy price volatility, constrained fiscal space, and persistently elevated food prices. The escalation of conflict dynamics in the Middle East in early 2026— coupled with severe disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz— has triggered one of the most significant global energy and trade shocks since the COVID19 pandemic and the Ukraine–Russia conflict. Global oil prices peaked at USD 114.5 per barrel, fertilizer markets tightened sharply due to a physical supply disruption, and maritime shipping has faced unprecedented congestion, insurance costs, and rerouting delays. With the announcement of ceasefire in early April 2026, the potential for a gradual stabilization of trade and transport corridors could lead to an improvement in the long-term outlook. Market volatility is expected to persist; however, with supply risks and price uncertainty remaining elevated in the near term. 1 FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2025. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. For the Caribbean—one of the most food import dependent regions globally with the highest cost of a healthy diet in the world1—these global shocks transmit rapidly and intensely into domestic food systems. Rising fuel and freight costs directly increase food import prices, transport and cold chain costs, electricity tariffs, and essential household expenditures. Structural features of Caribbean economies—small market size, the narrow base of suppliers, and the high share of food and transport costs in household consumption—amplify inflationary spillovers, particularly for low-income households. At the same time, climate projections indicate a 61 percent probability of El Niño developing between May and July 2026 and persist through at least the end of 2026. Historically, El Niño is associated with rainfall deficits, higher temperatures, and extended dry spells across Caribbean states, including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and parts of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Early seasonal forecasts for 2026 already point to below average rainfall, prompting Belize to activate drought related anticipatory action mechanisms. The combination of reduced precipitation and rising temperatures is expected to intensify evapotranspiration, accelerate soil moisture depletion, increase wildfire risk, and constrain rainfed agricultural production.